Just over a year ago, multiple opposition coalitions competed for seats in Georgia’s parliament, with four managing to enter the legislature. Today, of their eight main leaders, all but one are jailed, in exile, or facing criminal charges. The ruling party is now seeking to ban the three main opposition groups entirely.

The shift toward one-party dominance has shocked observers in the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia had appeared on a fast track toward democracy and closer integration with the European Union. However, recent assessments from Brussels describe Georgia’s democratic institutions as weakened and its courts heavily influenced by the state. The EU has declared that Georgia is now a candidate for membership “in name only,” and its ambassador in Tbilisi has said the country is no longer on the path to joining the bloc.

Veterans of Georgian politics warn that the country may be approaching a point from which democracy will be hard to recover. Former deputy foreign minister Sergi Kapanadze said, “We are now five minutes away from one-party dictatorship.” Former ambassador Natalie Sabanadze noted that the longstanding political consensus on Georgia’s Western orientation has largely disappeared, with the ruling party reluctant to accept the possibility of losing power.

The ruling party frames its actions as necessary to protect the country from opposition figures allegedly seeking to provoke conflict with Russia. Deputy speaker Nino Tsilosani said Georgia needs stability for investors and businesses, and accused jailed opposition leaders of plotting a coup. Opposition parties reject these claims as fabricated.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of Georgian Dream, is often blamed for the authoritarian shift. Some critics allege ties with Russia, where he amassed his fortune in the 1990s, though former party advisor Gia Khukhashvili says Ivanishvili is pragmatic, viewing cooperation with Russia as a strategic necessity.

Economically, Georgia’s orientation is also shifting. Foreign investment has dropped to early 2000s levels, while Russian businesses and IT workers have boosted short-term growth. The World Bank forecasts 7% GDP growth this year after 9.4% last year. Major projects, such as a deep-water Black Sea port, have stalled after Western-led investors were replaced by a Chinese company. Georgia now imports nearly half of its oil from Russia, up from 8% in 2012.

In recent weeks, the government has accelerated moves to suppress dissent. Legal actions could ban the main opposition parties, while new criminal charges against key opposition figures, including former President Mikheil Saakashvili, may keep them imprisoned for years. Even former allies and senior officials linked to Georgian Dream are facing charges. Anti-government protests are met with arrests and fines, leaving activists fearful and demoralized.

Observers warn that Georgia’s international visibility is waning and that its democratic institutions are under severe strain. The combination of political consolidation, shifting economic ties, and stalled EU integration suggests a significant turning point for the country.