Grocery stores are absorbing higher turkey costs this Thanksgiving. A surge in bird flu cases has driven up wholesale turkey prices, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, but those price increases aren’t being reflected in what shoppers pay, as advertised turkey prices remain similar to last year.

Experts say grocery stores are taking on the extra cost to attract customers, and projections show that the overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal has stayed relatively stable as well.

The increase in costs comes from a tighter supply, with bird flu playing a major role. In the fall, cases spiked among commercial poultry farms, and by October, more than 2 million turkeys had been culled due to exposure. Minnesota, the nation’s top turkey-producing state, confirmed six outbreaks in October.

David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, added that a second virus, avian metapneumovirus, is reducing the number of viable eggs produced by hens, making it harder for turkey farmers to rebuild their flocks.

As a result, turkey supply is tightening. The USDA projects turkey production to drop to 4.8 million pounds for the year, down from 5.1 million pounds in 2024. The limited supply has led to higher costs for stores, with the wholesale price of frozen turkeys rising about 80 percent from November 2024 to November 2025, increasing from less than $1 per pound to over $1.70 per pound.

Despite the higher wholesale prices, retail prices for conventional frozen turkeys have remained steady. Ortega explained that retailers often use turkeys as a loss leader, pricing them at or below cost to draw customers in, relying on sales of other items to make up the difference.

Thanksgiving dinners involve more than just turkey, and the overall cost of the meal shows mixed trends. Some data indicate prices are up nearly 10 percent, while other sources show a decline of up to 5 percent. Food prices have recently drawn attention, with President Donald Trump noting that Walmart’s Thanksgiving bundle was priced under $40, though it included six fewer items than last year’s package.

Ortega said it is clear that food costs are a priority for consumers. Retailers are aware of tight household budgets and are competing to attract shoppers during the holiday season.